estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

[arturo.servin at gmail.com (Arturo Servin)]

On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote:
> 
> one of these curves is steeper than the other.

	That's what we wanted for the first one.

> 
> http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step
> 

> http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step
> 
> If the slope on the second stays within some reasonable bounds of it's
> current trajactory then everything's cool, you buy new routers on
> schedule and the world moves on. The first one however will eventually
> kill us.

	It won't, it will take an "S" shape eventually. Possibly around 120k prefixes, then it will follow the normal growth of the Internet as v4 did. 

> 
> The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run
> we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes
> 
> 
>> randy
>> 
> 

-as